December 13th State Senate Primary: Voter guide? Opinions?

[secretlyironic.livejournal.com]

Next Tuesday (December 13) there will be a special Democratic primary to determine who will run to replace state senator Steven Tolman. A December special primary election is likely to have a small turnout, which means everyone who does vote basically counts extra. And given the district, the winner of the primary is pretty likely to be the winner of the general election.

The candidates are:

Will Brownsberger - http://mywillbrownsberger.com/
Jonathan Hecht - http://electhecht.com/
Bob McCarthy - http://bobmccarthy.org/
Tim Schofield - http://www.timschofield.org/

Anyone got opinions or arguments for or against any of them?

Comments

[cos]

I was on Tim Schofield's campaign when he ran for state rep in 2005, and I think he's awesome!

He came in a very close second in a 4 way race. So disappointing.

Sorry I'm in a conference write now and don't have time to write a longer comment.

[jere7my.livejournal.com]

We noticed that he's the only one who uses the word "progressive" on his flyers, which turned our heads. If you know more about his positions, I'd love to hear them.

[ron_newman]

I had no idea this was about to happen. What part of Cambridge is his district? (I don't think he represents any part of Somerville)

[avecvu.livejournal.com]

He's Second Suffolk and Middlesex (http://www.sec.state.ma.us/ele/eledist/sen02idx.htm#2sufmid). Some Boston, North Cambridge, Belmont and Watertown.

[bikergeek.livejournal.com]

It's the Second Suffolk & Middlesex. It includes, roughly, the towns of Belmont and Watertown; North Cambridge; and what looks like part of Allston/Brighton. But nothing in Somerville.

[gruene.livejournal.com]

PDF map of all the districts here:

http://commpres.env.state.ma.us/publications/mapgallery/senate.pdf

His district is the one that includes Belmont, Watertown, North Cambridge, Brighton and Fenway.

[emcicle.livejournal.com]

I like Brownsberger, but that is based on very superficial things: when he was most recently campaigning, he was going door to door. He is a runner/biker/triathlete. I have emailed him to express my opinion about legislation and he has responded to me. I recognize that those things don't necessarily make him unique, but I was impressed (admittedly, i'm easy to impress, and easy to piss off!)

[cos]

All candidates for state rep or state senate campaign door to door, or they have no chance of winning.

I kinda like Brownsberger too. (but Tim Schofield is so much awesomer!)

[gruene.livejournal.com]

This is why I wish we had some sort of ranked choice voting, or even old fashioned runoffs, for primaries. Often there are several good candidates to choose from.

[cos]

I agree!

And so does Tim Schofield.

Back when I was on his 2005 campaign I was also active in promoting ranked choice for state elections, and we discussed it a few times. Tim would not only support this, he'd probably actually take real action in the state legislature to try to make it happen.

[808.livejournal.com]

Hecht's children attend a school next to my house in Watertown. He's always there talking to parents and, from what I hear, super nice. I like that he's fluent in Chinese and lived there for a bit. He is an alum of Tufts. I think I'll vote for him over McCarthy because he opposes Casinos while McCarthy supports them. According to yard signage in Watertown/Belmont, it's a race between those two.

[gruene.livejournal.com]

Yard signs do not vote. They are not a good measure of political support either, since some candidates put a lot of work into getting signs to all their supports, while others view it as a waste of time and money.

[808.livejournal.com]

I'm not saying yard signs are the best way to judge support. I'm just saying that, lack of any other method of predicting results, looking at yard signs is better than guessing.

Name recognition is a strong predictor of final vote performance, especially in low publicity/low volume elections such as this one. So I could see why a yard sign poll may be better than relying on chance.

The statement that "yard signs do not vote" makes no sense. Neither do flyers, TV ads, debate performances, etc. The question is whether they influence vote.

[gruene.livejournal.com]

I guess in a low turnout election they might be worthwhile, since their primary purpose is to boost name recognition. They are not effective at persuading undecided voters. That has been well researched.

Here's a classic rant about yard signs (in the presidential election, where name recognition is not an issues):

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/09/breaking-obama-campaign-organizers.html

Here's another person talking about yard signs in state legislative races, where he feels they can be quite helpful:

http://www.wichita.edu/thisis/wsunews/news/?nid=423

Here's a more neutral view that feels that yard signs have some benefit, but are less cost effective than other methods:

http://ktgarland.wordpress.com/2009/11/02/political-yard-signs-do-they-really-work/

[808.livejournal.com]

Thanks, that's very interesting.

Regarding the 538 post, an easy solution would be to setup a print-on-demand yard sign/bumper sticker shop online. Then if someone walks in wanting one, just hand them a URL and move on.

Brownsberger fan

[theorangebird.livejournal.com]

I live in Brownsberger's State Rep district and find him to be a very thoughtful legislator and very responsive on constituent matters. He maintains a great listserv on which he intelligently explains his position on his votes and other state matters. Also...when I cc:ed him on a letter that I sent to the T concerning its "improvement program" for the 77 bus line (read: eliminate stops), he called me within a couple of days to discuss my concerns and later emailed me that he conveyed them in a meeting he had w/ T officials. That's top-notch in my book.

Another Brownsberger fan

[rozhinka.livejournal.com]

Echoing theorangebird--Brownsberger has been absolutely top-notch. I've had the same experiences--thoughtful and responsive are the words I'd also use. He's been a helpful, non-egotistical participant at many community meetings and always makes himself available on the phone or in person. These characteristics have earned him my respect; his politics have also earned him my vote.

I hope it isn't spammy to post links to

- http://mywillbrownsberger.com/ - Campaign site with position statements etc.
- http://willbrownsberger.com/ - His constituent site. The "One Tough Vote" article cogently explains his stand on the horrible three strikes law that passed a couple of weeks ago--he was one of the few non-minority members to vote against it.

[icecreamempress.livejournal.com]

I got a flyer today from Schofield that I found odd. On the front there was a photo of him standing next to another man; on the back a photo of just him. Nowhere on the flyer did it say if the man on the front is his husband or partner, or a random happy constituent, or some other elected official who is endorsing him, or what.

After a few minutes of pondering, I came to the conclusion that it was probably his husband or partner, but then I wondered whether the lack of any indication of that was an error or what. If it's a dog-whistle, I don't like being dog-whistled at, even by someone who's on my side.