Green Line Extension - $1 billion over projections; cancellation on the table

[keithn.livejournal.com]

http://www.bostonglobe.com/metro/2015/08/24/mbta-green-line-extension-cost-billion-more-than-projected/dU65AoqBXDs4T33K97AMXN/story.html

The long-awaited Green Line extension into Somerville and Medford could cost as much as $1 billion more than the T’s initial budget estimates, raising doubt about whether the project will be completed.

I don't even have words for this.

Comments

article paywall

[vonelftinhaus.livejournal.com]

Not sure how the two articles on the subject compares that globe article is asking for payment; so here is a link to the herald article https://www.bostonherald.com/news_opinion/local_coverage/2015/08/green_line_extension_1b_over_budget_in_danger_of_cancellation

[totient]

If you delete any cookies from the Globe's various web sites you can get another five free articles.

[pywaket.livejournal.com]

Actually, just set your browser to block cookies from them in the first place. The still let you see the article and have no way of tracking how many times you've been to the site.

Nevermind - they fixed that bug.

[keithn.livejournal.com]

It still works for me. There's a pop up that you have to close every time you view an article, but it never prevents viewing the article.

[pywaket.livejournal.com]

You're right - for some reason it wasn't closing for me, but it turned out that Adblock that was keeping the close button from working.

So, the Glob is still incompetent ;-)

[totient]

I suspect that this article was written at the behest of the T to give them negotiating leverage over White Skanska Keiwit, with whom they are currently negotiating a contract.

[somerfriend.livejournal.com]

It is my understanding that the firm that oversees them feels the price they are asking is absurd.

[nonelvis]

I don't even have words for this.

That's about where I am, yes.

[teko.livejournal.com]

"The project has been divided into several contracts, and the T must negotiate with its main contractor for the price of each portion. The T is currently negotiating the price tag of one of the largest jobs of the extension, which would create three new stations and tracks. While the T believes that portion could cost $487 million, its main contractor, White-Skanska-Kiewit has estimated that the portion will cost nearly double that -- $889 million."

So wait... they're negotiating each individual piece of this project as it's happening, and they're somehow surprised that their contractor is holding them hostage by doubling their rates? That's about the dumbest way to handle this project I can think of. They're completely at the mercy of their contractors, who can milk each segment for as much as they want.

[gruene.livejournal.com]

Hence the threat to cancel, though that gets less believable as the project goes on. Assuming they do negotiate the price down this time, what are they going to do when the next segment also comes in ridiculously over?

[keithn.livejournal.com]

This throws an interesting wrench in the Ward 6 alderman election. Now the topic of the election gets to shift back to the GLX, something we all thought was a done deal that we could move on from.

Maybe we'll want the lawyer guy.

[ron_newman]

Does it, though? None of the extension is really in Ward 6 (though Ball Square station is right beyond the ward boundary), and the city doesn't decide whether and how the extension is built.

[keithn.livejournal.com]

I think the Ball Square station is extremely important to the residents of much of Ward 6. As you said, it's right on the ward boundary, and as far as I know there isn't a moat and wall separating the powder house square neighborhood from the station. For a couple of years now, property values have been increasing and property taxes have been increasing for residents in the area simply due to the promise of the extension, and the property tax increases extend even into my neighborhood which is about a 15 minute walk from any GLX stop and only ~7 minutes from the Porter Square red line station.

Even though our officials don't run the MBTA, the city wields an enormous amount of political influence over the GLX. The GLX almost entirely to our city's benefit. Don't forget that the GLX project was only resumed after a lawsuit from our city, and don't forget that the $1 billion in funds promised by the federal government was won by Michael Capuano, the former mayor of Somerville. If the GLX project is cancelled or mothballed, I would expect an aggressive legal and political battle by our city officials.

I know you live way over on Day or Orchard street where GLX will probably have little impact on your life, but I think any serious consideration of cancelling or mothballing GLX is going to be the top issue in Somerville as a whole by a LOT. It's tough to say how serious the talk is at this point, but I think the city needs to show what a fight the MBTA/state will have on its hands before it starts to take the idea more seriously.

[ron_newman]

I agree with that, but it would surprise me to see any difference at all between the four candidates on this particular subject.

[keithn.livejournal.com]

I'd like to give them a chance to speak for themselves. You really don't know until someone asks, and there isn't much of a filter to prevent out of whack candidates from running. For instance - If any of them believe that the GLX is a bad thing because it "prices people out of their neighborhoods" I would be glad to know that to have one less candidate to consider when voting.

I am also seeing statements now from Capuano and Bill Straus suggesting that the GLX might stop at Gilman Square. This is something that the city could potentially support, but it would be bad news for wards 5 and 6, so you really want a strong advocate for ward 6 holding that seat.

The MBTA slides referenced by the story

[mackenchz.livejournal.com]

Here are the slides referenced by the story: https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/2299008-glx-contract-presentation-for-fmcb-final-08-21.html

What I'm taking away: They are guessing the whole project will be roughly 700 million to 1 billion over budget. People are quick to suggest cutting the stations back to bare platforms a la the D line, and to cut the community path out entirely, but the slides are clear that this saves a maximum of 68 million (40 million and 28 million). If those cuts happen, it will be sad to scale the project back so much to recoup such a small portion of the estimated variance.

I assume that the project will see a more significant rethinking than skimping on the stations, path, and sound barriers.

RE: The MBTA slides referenced by the story

[somerfriend.livejournal.com]

For the love of God, no redesign, have to move forward, I can't attend a bajillion more public meeting- 35 1/2 % design, now a 53 2/8% design meeting, etc Those meetings would cost money too.

Just get competitive bids instead.

[tsuki-no-bara.livejournal.com]

holy cow. hands up everyone who's surprised, tho.

[ceo]

Yes, the risk of the CM/GC procurement method is the contractor padding the crap out of their Guaranteed Maximum Estimate so as to minimize the risk of getting screwed. (That's the number that's at issue here.) The presentation doesn't seem to address what the Independent Cost Estimator thought of WSK's bid.

The problem with D-line-style stations is that the stations have to be center-platform because there's no room in the ROW for side platforms. That makes on-board fare collection problematic, unless you cross over and run the trains on the left-hand track, or switch to proof-of-payment fare collection. A lot of people seem to be fans of the latter approach, but to me it seems like an open invitation to racial profiling. And since most of the stations are going to be accessed from overpasses, with the ADA access requirements that entails, it doesn't surprise me that it wouldn't actually save that much.

[dmaze]

On the proof-of-payment systems I've been on in the past, when the fare inspector comes on, they check *everybody's* tickets. It seems like this can be done fairly and transparently to minimize allegations of profiling.

Since everyone has electronic-only passes, they just need to make sure the collectors have the same mobile Charlie Card validators they rolled out on the commuter rail. ...oh, wait...

[leafshimmer.livejournal.com]

I apologize if I'm upsetting anyone who's reading, but I am not in the least surprised. IMO after the events of last Winter when the T WAS PARALYZED FOR A MONTH OR MORE IN SOME AREAS, and they FAILED MASSIVELY to deal... I expected this call back in May or June, at the latest.

Of course if they stop at this point, whatever work has been done, including the excavations in Union Square, is money right out the window. But what's different about that and how they've been operating for the last 20-some years?

[mindstalk.livejournal.com]

A friend of mine says "it's in a trench in existing Right Of Way, how is it costing more than $500 million?"

[dmaze]

On the one hand, look at slides 18 and 23 of the presentation linked above. There are also some extra parts, like new Green Line cars and a new maintenance facility, that are pricey and not totally obvious as parts of the project. Where the Union and Ball Square branches split off is apparently an especially exciting multi-level interchange that the bike path also needs to get routed through.

On the other...the subproject of "move the Fitchburg commuter rail over" was budgeted at $63 million and bid at $115 million. Just "build the Green Line from Washington St. to Tufts" is being bid at twice the budgeted amount. It's not quite a trivial project (I can't see not replacing the Broadway overpass) but still, twice what an "expensive" light rail system should cost is kind of stunning.

[http://users.livejournal.com/_meej_/]

One wonders what the pricing would have come in like had it been completed by 2011 as originally forecast... Sigh.

[somerfriend.livejournal.com]

Or if it had been shovel ready at the time of the great recession when the feds were doing a bunch of projects.

[bobobb.livejournal.com]

When I moved to Ball Square 10 years ago I went to the planning meetings for the Greenline Extension. Someone please explain to me why the F this is still going on and who I can send irate letters to.

[achinhibitor.livejournal.com]

There's an article in today's Globe that suggests that this is mostly a matter of negotiation. And I expect Baker and Pollock to win on this one, like many others, especially because the Legislature is going to be on their side. After all, there's nothing better for beating down the vendor's price than "Well, maybe we just won't bother with it after all..."